Americans Brace for Rising Inflation and Job Market Uncertainty, Fed Survey Shows

U.S. households anticipate inflation accelerating to 3.4% over the next year, up from November's 3.2% projection, according to the New York Fed's December survey. The outlook reflects growing economic anxiety as workers report just a 43.1% chance of securing new employment if laid off—the lowest confidence level since the survey began tracking this metric in 2013.

The data reveals a nation grappling with twin pressures: escalating living costs and deteriorating labor prospects. This dichotomy echoes divisions within the Federal Reserve, where policymakers remain split between prioritizing inflation containment and safeguarding employment. The impasse likely maintains the status quo on interest rates at this month's FOMC meeting.

Survey respondents expressed heightened concerns about debt sustainability, with 15.3% anticipating missed minimum payments within three months—the worst reading since April 2020's pandemic shock. Yet a silver lining emerges as personal finance Optimism reaches its highest level since February 2025.